The real estate market trends in 2026 point to a scenario of more stable activity in sales and purchases, but with prices and rents still under pressure due to the structural shortage of supply and a more favourable financing environment than at recent highs.
- Prices: the market enters 2026 with upward pressure, after closing 2025 with an average value of €1,963/m² (+15.41 pct y-o-y and +4.11 pct q-o-q). The central scenario points to a moderation in the pace of growth compared to 2025, conditioned by the combination of firm demand and rigid supply.
- Types/mortgages: More contained inflation and gradual easing of monetary policy have improved access to financing; in 2025, mortgages grew +18.4% y-o-y (cumulative to October).
- Insufficient supply: the estimated shortfall is around 600,000 dwellings until 2025 and more than 100,000 additional dwellings, bringing the gap to around 700,000, with production not keeping pace with demand.
- Tensioned rent: rising rents in 2025 and persistent pressure in 2026 due to the imbalance between supply and demand, especially in urban and tourist markets.
From Gesvalt, we share this analysis from the perspective of a valuation and appraisal company, combining market reading and technical criteria.
If you need to know the real value of an asset in order to buy, sell or finance, you can rely on a professional home valuation.
Executive summary: 10 key trends in 2026
- Prices, The pressure on urban and tourist markets remains strong, with high year-on-year growth.
- Purchases and sales, emissions tend to stabilise at levels similar to 2025 after two years of recovery.
- Offer, continues to be rigid despite upturns in activity, widening the demand-available output mismatch.
- Funding, The economic outlook is improving due to macro normalisation and monetary easing, reactivating part of the demand.
- Housing, The efficient, efficient approach is gaining weight as a standard (ESG, rehabilitation, certifications) to protect value and facilitate financing.
- Coliving, The new format is consolidating traction as a living format, with a focus on large cities and expansion to new areas.
- Reconversion, The project is progressing (division of large dwellings and change of use of premises/offices to residential).
- Digitisation, accelerates the buying and selling process (virtual visits, indicative valuations, faster processes).
- Investment, The institutional, institutional supports the residential/living activity with foreign capital in core locations.
- Regulation, The situation of the housing market, conditions for renting (stressed areas, IRAV, SERPAVI and the debate on temporary/rooming).
Context of the real estate market in Spain in 2026
Prices: why they are under pressure
Price pressure is explained by a combination of demand regaining traction, a more favourable financial environment and structural supply constraints. The end of 2025 reflects a dynamic market (average price €1,963/m², +15.4% y-o-y) and the forecast for 2026 maintains relevant growth (around 9%-10% y-o-y).
Supply: structural deficit and insufficient construction
The mismatch between households and production continues to mark the cycle: accumulated deficit of around 600,000 dwellings until 2025 and more than 100,000 additional dwellings, to close to 700,000. In activity, the cumulative figure to October 2025 shows housing starts +6.5% y-o-y and housing completions -10.6% y-o-y, reflecting that the increase in supply is not keeping pace with demand.
Rent: tension due to expiries and renewals
Maturity/renewal data 2026: rents with +6% y-o-y in 2025 and forecast +7% in 2026, plus the deployment of stressed areas (Law 12/2023), the IRAV (INE) for annual updating in foreseen scenarios and SERPAVI as the state reference system.
| Indicator | Latest available data (2025) | Reference 2026 (if applicable) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP (Banco de España projection) | 2,6% (2025) | 2,2% (2026) |
| Average inflation (Banco de España projection) | 2,7% (2025) | 2,1% (2026) |
| Average house price | 1.963 €/m² | – |
| Year-on-year change in house prices | +15,4% | – |
| Buying and selling houses (cum. Oct 2025) | +12.3% y-o-y | high activity |
| Mortgages taken out (cum. Oct 2025) | +18.4% y-o-y | – |
| Housing starts / completions (cum. Oct 2025) | +6.5% / -10.6% year-on-year | – |
| Effort rate | 34,6% | – |
| Rental price (year-on-year) | +6% end 2025 | persistent stress |
Real estate market trends in 2026
1) House prices: pressure and peaks in stressed areas
Prices continue to rise as demand remains active and supply is unresponsive, especially affecting buyers and households in large markets and high traction areas. In 2026, growth is expected to continue, with estimates of 9%-10% y-o-y and a start to the year that could be 11%-12% y-o-y.
2) Insufficient supply and construction on the rise, but not covering the shortfall
Supply is partially growing but is still insufficient due to structural deficits, administrative deadlines, land for finalisation and operational restrictions, affecting developers, buyers and the rental market. The estimated gap is close to 700,000 dwellings, and in 2025 it was already +6.5% in starts versus -10.6% in completions (cumulative to October).
3) Tensioned rental: renewals, regulation and turnover
Rental remains under stress as part of demand shifts from buy-to-let and supply is not growing at the same pace, affecting tenants, landlords and portfolio managers. Increases of +7% y-o-y in 2026 (after +6% in 2025) are expected and the deployment of stressed areas continues, in addition to the regulatory debate on temporary and room rentals.
4) Interest rates and financing: impact on mortgages and demand
Financing is improving due to a more stable macroeconomic environment and more contained inflation, which reactivates demand and supports activity, affecting both buyers (mortgage capacity) and developers (cost of financing). In 2025 there was already a recovery in lending, with mortgages +18.41 p.p.p. y-o-y (cumulative to October).
5) Sustainable housing and energy efficiency as a value factor
Sustainability is consolidated because demand and financiers prioritise efficiency, materials and ESG criteria, affecting developers, owners and funds. Energy efficiency, bioclimatic design and circular economy criteria are gaining presence, and refurbishment is going from a trend to a necessity due to the ageing of the stock and the European framework.
More information on energy certificate.
6) PropTech and AI in valuation and management (predictive modelling)
Digitalisation is transforming buying and selling and management because it facilitates access to information and streamlines processes, affecting individuals, investors and companies. Virtual visits, mortgage calculations and indicative valuations are spreading, while analytical models and data intelligence (such as Gesvalt DATA) for reliable analysis are growing in companies.
More information on automated mass appraisal.
7) Demand: polarisation by location and typology
Demand is polarised because demographic and employment pressure is concentrated in specific areas, affecting prices and liquidity by zones. Pressure is observed in urban and dynamic markets; in capital cities, high levels stand out in San Sebastián, Madrid and Barcelona, and by territories, markets with strong traction stand out, such as Madrid, Murcia and Valencia, as well as tourist areas.
8) Institutional investment: residential, BTR and alternatives
Residential investment is holding up because the supply-demand imbalance and interest in living sustains long-term theses, affecting developers, funds and owners. Foreign capital activity is expected in core locations and living segments, and alternatives such as coliving are gaining traction.
9) Conversion and repositioning of assets (offices, retail)
Conversion is growing because residential shortages and less competitive stock are pushing changes of use and repositioning, affecting owners, investors and administrations. Large housing divisions, conversion of premises/offices into housing and, in offices, a market that “rewards quality” are consolidating: more liquidity in prime/refurbished with certifications and more pressure on obsolete stock.
10) Regulatory framework and taxation: uncertainty as a brake/accelerator
Regulatory uncertainty conditions calendars and decisions because it affects legal certainty and the capacity to activate supply, impacting investment, development and rental. In renting, there are tensioned zones (Law 12/2023), IRAV and SERPAVI, and there is legislative debate on temporary and room rentals; in addition, the heterogeneity of regulations and administrative coordination influence timeframes and viability.
What do these trends mean for individuals, companies and investors?
These trends do not affect everyone in the same way. For individuals, businesses and investors, they imply changes in accessibility, costs and strategy: from how people finance and search for housing to how they plan investments and manage portfolio risks.
If you are buying a home in 2026
- Request prior appraisal to ascertain market value.
- Review actual comparables by area and typology.
- Verify energy efficiency and refurbishment needs.
- Check encumbrances and registration status.
- Simulate funding and effort capacity (benchmark effort rate: 34.6%).
If you are going to sell
- Adjust price to market with technical support (appraisal).
- Prepare documentation of the property (registration status, renovations, etc.).
- Have updated energy certificate and evidence of improvements/efficiency.
If you manage a portfolio (company/investor)
- Monitor regulatory risk and contractual segmentation (rental).
- Review rotation and liquidity by quality/location (prime vs. secondary polarisation).
- Perform periodic valuation and scenario analysis (financing, income, capex).
Apply now for your valuation for sale and purchase
How does a professional valuation help to make decisions in 2026?
- Secure purchase: check asking price against market value and comparables.
- Selling and pricing: defines a defensible range and reduces uncertainty in the negotiation.
- Mortgage/financing: provides a technical reference for entities and transaction structure.
- Audit/accounting/corporate operations: supports portfolio decisions, due diligence and reporting.
Forecast 2026-2027: scenarios and variables to watch out for
| Variable | Base scenario | What to monitor |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2,2% (2026) | Signs of slowdown vs. solvent demand |
| Inflation | 2,1% (2026) | Impact on rates and cost of funding |
| Types / financing | Progressive relaxation | Transfer to mortgage and developer cost |
| Employment / unemployment | 10,5% (reference 2025) | Employment trends and solvent demand |
| Rental | +7% y-o-y (2026) | Effective supply, regulation, segmentation (time / room) |
Conclusion: Data-driven decisions in 2026
In 2026, the market combines stable activity, price pressure and a supply imbalance that will continue to drive the cycle, especially in areas of high demand. In this context, the recommendation is to decide with technical support: comparables, scenarios and risk analysis by asset and location.
Request a appraisal with Gesvalt and talk to an expert to make informed decisions.
Frequently asked questions on property market trends
Will house prices rise in 2026?
It is expected to continue to grow, with estimates around 9%-10% y-o-y (and a start with 11%-12% y-o-y).
Is it a good time to buy a house in 2026?
Depends on the asset and financing: the financial environment is more favourable, but prices are still under pressure; a prior appraisal helps to decide.
Which areas will have the highest demand pressure?
Urban and dynamic markets; references such as Madrid, Barcelona and capitals with high prices such as San Sebastian stand out, as well as tourist areas.
How does the Euribor affect the purchase?
If the Euribor falls, it makes mortgages (especially variable mortgages) cheaper, reduces repayments and increases purchasing power by making it easier to meet financing requirements.
If the Euribor rises, it makes revisions more expensive, raises monthly repayments and reduces solvent demand, cooling operations in the most financing-sensitive profiles.
What impact does energy efficiency have on value?
Efficiency and ESG criteria gain weight: they help protect value, improve liquidity and can facilitate financing.
What is an appraisal and when to request one?
It is a technical valuation of the property; it is suitable for buying, selling, financing and portfolio/transaction decisions.
How is a real estate portfolio valued?
With regular valuations and scenario analysis (income, asset quality, capex, regulation), based on data and expert judgement.